Dave Birkett’s Detroit Lions 53-man roster prediction: See who is the surprise cut

The Detroit Lions have until 4 p.m. Tuesday to pare their 90-man roster to 53 players, but Lions coach Dan Campbell said he won’t need all that time to make most of the moves.

“I don’t see this being one big cut,” Campbell said after the Lions’ preseason finale Friday against the Carolina Panthers. “I think we’re going to need to kind of disperse it a little bit, but I think (Saturday) we’re going to have a real good feel of where we’re at, at least 99% of the roster.”

It’s that final 1% that Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes will spend the next few days wringing their hands over. Do they need 10 or 11 defensive backs? Is there a move to be made on the defense line? And how should they set their receiving corps?

With training camp over and the regular season opener 11 days away, here’s my last best guess at how the Lions set their initial 53-man roster.

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Quarterback (2)

On the roster: Jared Goff, Teddy Bridgewater, Nate Sudfeld, Hendon Hooker, Adrian Martinez.

Any thought of keeping three quarterbacks likely went out the window Friday, when Sudfeld hyperextended his knee. The Lions have too good a roster to keep an injured third QB around, especially with Hooker due back at some point this fall. I don’t know how serious Sudfeld’s injury is so I can’t say what route the Lions will take with him, but it’s probably best they keep their options open and negotiate an injury settlement in case they need him back down the road. Martinez can function as the scout-team quarterback to start the year.

In: Goff, Bridgewater.

NFI: Hooker.

Running backs (4)

On the roster: David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jermar Jefferson, Craig Reynolds, Benny Snell, Devine Ozigbo, Jason Cabinda.

I have the Lions keeping three running backs plus fullback Jason Cabinda, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they kept five in the room. Both Ozigbo and Snell have special teams value, and I thought both did a good job in pass protection Friday. Reynolds is the best runner of the group behind Montgomery and Gibbs, though, and likely sewed up a spot with his play against the Panthers.

In: Montgomery, Gibbs, Reynolds, Cabinda (FB).

Wide receivers (6)

On the roster: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, Josh Reynolds, Marvin Jones, Jameson Williams, Antoine Green, Maurice Alexander, Trinity Benson, Chase Cota, Dylan Drummond, Avery Davis, Jason Moore.

Both Green and Drummond made strong cases for roster spots Friday, and I’m willing to bet Campbell and Holmes are weighing Drummond’s steady play this summer against the upside they saw in Green as a seventh-round pick in April’s draft. If the Lions keep six receivers, I think both make the team over Cota. If they go with five, Drummond has been more consistent and contributes more on special teams. I don’t think Holmes fears cutting a rookie draft pick; he did it last year with edge rusher James Houston. But I do think Green’s draft status tips the scales towards keeping him around.

In: St. Brown, Raymond, Reynolds, Jones, Drummond, Green.

Suspended: Williams.

Tight ends (3)

On the roster: Sam LaPorta, Brock Wright, James Mitchell, Daniel Helm, Darrell Daniels.

Not much has changed with this position since the start of camp. LaPorta is the Lions’ No. 1 tight end, Wright and Mitchell will have roles off the bench and the Lions will keep one of their backups — Daniels, is my guess — on practice squad.

In: LaPorta, Wright, Mitchell.

IR: Shane Zylstra.

Offensive line (9)

On the roster: Taylor Decker, Jonah Jackson, Frank Ragnow, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Penei Sewell, Graham Glasgow, Matt Nelson, Germain Ifedi, Brad Cecil, Alex Mollette, Kayode Awosika, Colby Sorsdal, Connor Galvin, Ryan Swoboda, Obinna Eze, Darrin Paulo, Max Pircher, Bobby Hart.

When Decker has missed time this summer, as he did one day last week, the Lions have moved Sewell to play left tackle and used Matt Nelson on the right side. Nelson has been more consistently solid than Ifedi and seems to have won the No. 3 tackle job. Ifedi could stick as the ninth lineman, but Sorsdal has taken some tackle reps the past two weeks and his versatility — he was a college tackle, but has played primarily guard this summer — means the Lions can keep a young interior lineman like Awosika around.

In: Decker, Jackson, Ragnow, Vaitai, Sewell, Glasgow, Sorsdal, Nelson, Awosika.

Defensive line (10)

On the roster: Edge — Aidan Hutchinson, John Cominsky, Josh Paschal, Charles Harris, James Houston, Romeo Okwara, Julian Okwara. IDL — Alim McNeill, Isaiah Buggs, Levi Onwuzurike, Brodric Martin, Benito Jones, Chris Smith, Cory Durden.

This is the toughest piece of the roster puzzle to figure out because the Lions have so many experienced hands vying for jobs on a deep defensive front. Holmes could alleviate the logjam by trading one of his excess linemen, but if he can’t find any takers he’ll either have to go heavy at the position or let a good player go. Romeo and Julian Okwara appear to be sixth and seventh, respectively, in the edge rush pecking order, and Buggs and Jones are vying for the starting nose tackle job. I set this roster with the Lions keeping both interior linemen. Jones played ahead of Buggs last week, but both stick based on their body of work (dating back to last year) and the fact Martin doesn’t quite look ready to contribute yet. And I left both Okwara brothers off in the toughest decision of this exercise.

Romeo had 10 sacks in 2020, but has played just nine games under this regime. Julian is a Bob Quinn draft pick on an expiring contract. Both played late into all three preseason games, well past the time when most veterans who have roster spots sewed up usually see the field.

In: Hutchinson, Cominsky, Paschal, Harris, Houston, McNeill, Buggs, Martin, Onwuzurike, Jones.

Linebackers (6)

On the roster: Alex Anzalone, Derrick Barnes, Malcolm Rodriguez, Jack Campbell, Anthony Pittman, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Trevor Nowaske.

The Lions could keep an Okwara and go light at a position like linebacker, essentially picking pass rush over special teams. If that happens, they may try and pull a maneuver like last summer, when they waived Pittman before the season, re-signed him to the practice squad played him as a gameday roster elevation and eventually promoted him to the 53-man roster. I kept Pittman on my roster as a four-phase special teamer, and because Campbell may have value as a pass rusher in certain sub packages. Barnes joined Anzalone as a healthy scratch Friday and appears to be in line for a starting job.

In: Anzalone, Barnes, Rodriguez, Campbell, Pittman, Reeves-Maybin.

Defensive backs (10)

On the roster: CB — Cam Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, Jerry Jacobs, Will Harris, Chase Lucas, Starling Thomas V, Steven Gilmore, Khalil Dorsey, Colby Richardson. S — Tracy Walker, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Kerby Joseph, Brian Branch, Ifeatu Melifonwu, Brady Breeze, Brandon Joseph, Scott Nelson.

After defensive line, I was most stumped by what to do with the secondary. Sutton, Jacobs, Gardner-Johnson, Joseph and Branch are locked into starting jobs, Thomas and Walker are the top backups and Harris seems next in line because of how much coaches value his versatility. But the Lions have three good, young defensive backs who might not make it through waivers and all three shined in Friday’s win over the Panthers. I kept Gilmore, an undrafted rookie out of Marshall, on my roster for the second straight week because the Lions are light on outside cornerbacks with Moseley still making his way back from knee surgery. And I gave the final spot to Dorsey over Lucas by a hair. Dorsey took first-team gunner reps last Wednesday, played inside and outside on kick cover and had a 62-yard kick return after not repping at the position in two years. Maybe Lucas makes it over a sixth receiver, or another defensive back, but these are the types of tough decisions teams with good rosters like the Lions have to make.

In: Sutton, Jacobs, Harris, Thomas, Gilmore, Gardner-Johnson, Joseph, Branch, Walker, Dorsey.

PUP: Moseley.

More: Detroit Lions’ Chase Lucas has won Dan Campbell’s heart. Can he win a roster spot, too?

Specialists (3)

On the roster: Jack Fox, Riley Patterson, Parker Romo, Scott Daly.

Finally, an easy one. Campbell gave Patterson a vote of confidence after he missed an extra point and a 53-yard field goal Friday, saying, “I feel like he’s been pretty steady and reliable, and I think he just kind of had a rough one today. That’s what I’m chalking it up to. Cause he’s really been on it, I feel like for this training camp.” Romo hasn’t kicked the past two weeks and seems like a candidate for practice squad.

In: Fox, Patterson, Daly.

Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.