NCAAF Week 3: Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators betting picks, preview


Florida is one of the most maligned programs in the country right now, as head coach Billy Napier just hasn’t been able to get it turned around quickly enough. Tennessee has been off to a sluggish start too but since they have not lost yet they are in a much more comfortable spot as this rivalry is renewed yet again on Saturday night. 

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Florida Gators Betting Trends and Odds 

Saturday, September 16, 2023 — 7:00 p.m. ET

Odds: Tennessee -6.5, Over/under 57.5, Tennessee -230 | Florida +190

The Vols won at home last year but the Gators covered the number. This is an interesting handicap because for a long time, Tennessee was down; they have not been favored in this game since 2016. That can be tough for people to wrap their heads around and I think it has depressed the line in a way that is helpful, if you like the visitors. 

Picks for Tennessee vs. Florida

Tennessee -6.5, Joe Milton to Score a TD (+170)

Both of these picks are focused on the Tennessee offense, which is the strongest unit on either side. They have not been totally clicking like they were a year ago just yet but, I have confidence in the staff and there is no doubt that Joe Milton has the talent. He has more of it than departed Hendon Hooker (though less polish). Tennessee’s offense is going to put a lot of pressure on the Gators to score in the 30s and I just don’t think they are up for it. The Vols have not played great competition so far but their defense has been pretty stingy, also remember that Florida lost to Utah when the Utes were playing reserve quarterbacks. Tennessee is way more explosive and I am not sure they are ready for it. 

As for Milton, yes, he is prone to make a mistake or two. That is who he is and kind of why I like him to keep scoring on the ground. He has at least one score in each game so far and the easiest way to not make a mistake in the red zone with your arm is to run it in yourself. He is big and strong and fast!

The money and picks are on the Vols as this is being written so this might get to the full 7 points. They are a good value there too, I think they win by 10. 

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