We’re back into more of a normal Lions routine…mostly. After a Monday night game and a bye week, it’s been a few weeks since I enjoyed the Sunday morning pot of coffee while pondering the day’s Lions game.
Of course, today’s game is a late-afternoon kickoff in Los Angeles. At least the NFL has given us a breakfast game from Germany to help wake up the football mind.
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Here’s what I’m thinking about the Lions and the Chargers in Week 10.
Why I think the Lions will win
- This Lions unit is about as close to full strength as any team can reasonably be expected to be in Week 10. The bye week came at a great time for Detroit, allowing a lot of key players with nagging injuries to rest and heal. It’s especially true on the offensive line, and that’s the engine that runs Ben Johnson’s offense.
- The Chargers are on the wrong end of the schedule hose. They played in New York on Monday Night a week after playing on Sunday night in L.A. Their bye came in Week 5, so there’s no rest for the wicked.
- L.A.’s offense gets one-dimensional too easily. Their last game, the Monday Night Football win over the Jets, is a great example. The Chargers ran the ball 21 times, but nine of those attempts came on their final 10 offensive plays, with the outcome already decided. Four other carries came on 3rd-and-short situations. The Lions defense handles predictable, one-dimensional offenses well. The Chargers have considerable talent with Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen et al, but paint by the passing numbers way too often offensively. Aaron Glenn’s defense should be able to handle that.
- The Chargers pass defense is really bad overall. They’re really good at two things: pressuring the quarterback and creating takeaways. Actual coverage and tackling? Not so much. They’re bottom-tier in yards per pass attempt (30th), passing yards per game (32nd), net yards per attempt (28th), 3rd down conversion rate via pass (30th), and opposing QB Rating (25th). As long as Jared Goff avoids mistakes–which he’s done very well all season–and the healthy OL gives him a little time, it could be a very big game for the Lions passing offense.
What worries me about the Chargers
- The Chargers are very good at converting red zone possessions into points. The L.A. defense is middle-of-the-pack in the red zone, but Detroit’s offense (somehow) ranks near the bottom in scoring touchdowns in the red zone. That could be a real problem if the game evolves into a shootout.
- That Chargers defensive front/pass rush is as good as any the Lions will see all year. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack get the attention, but L.A. is a lot more than just those two All-Pros. EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu is a front-runner for Defensive Rookie of the Year, leading all rookies in sacks, QB pressures and penalties drawn. Morgan Fox might be the most anonymous player in the league with five sacks. They also blitz LB Kenneth Murray quite effectively. The Chargers are 3rd in TFLs on first-down run plays, too. Even against a great Lions OL, they’re capable of ruining the day.
- Los Angeles leads the NFL in turnover margin, including the dumb luck of recovering a league-high nine fumbles on defense and special teams. They’ve given the ball up just six times in eight games. I believe in two things here: regression to the mean is coming, but the positive inertia of good luck is a fickle mistress to tangle with.
- At some point, they have to stop underachieving relative to high-end talent. Right? Right?! There is some existential dread that coach Brandon Staley figures out how to stop “Chargering” and does it against Detroit.
Final score prediction
This is a tough one. On paper, the Chargers should be a very difficult matchup for Detroit. Los Angeles probably should expect to win this game at home. I don’t fault anyone for thinking (or betting) that the Chargers will win.
There are many scenarios in the bottom of my coffee mug where the Lions lose this one. But I topped off the java and feel good about the Lions not losing. Emphasis on “not losing” more than winning. The Chargers need to force mistakes on both sides of the ball to beat a team. I trust Dan Campbell’s Lions to not make those costly mistakes. I expect a sharp Lions team that is looking to make a statement coming out of the bye, too.
Lions 27, Chargers 20