NFL Week 11 best bets: One wager to make for every team

USA Today

Week 11 kicks off with a bang as the Cincinnati Bengals face the Baltimore Ravens in a matchup between two AFC North rivals. Things wrap up on Monday night with an equally intriguing game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs, a rematch of Super Bowl LVII.

Our NFL Wire editors have picked one bet to make on each team this week, going heavy on player props – including anytime touchdown scorers and a few interception props.

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There are four teams on a bye so we have a total of 28 wagers to make in Week 11, with all odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Note: The Falcons, Colts, Patriots and Saints are on a bye this week.

Bengals at Ravens: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow

Bengals: Joe Burrow OVER 258.5 passing yards (-115)

Burrow has exceeded this number three games in a row since his return to full health and in five of his last seven. Even in Week 2 against these same Ravens, he mustered 222 passing yards on 41 attempts at a paltry 5.4 average with zero mobility on the injured calf and a limited playbook.. Star cornerback Marlon Humphrey is doubtful for the Ravens too, so the offense figures to keep moving Ja’Marr Chase all over the place to create favorable matchups that produce chunks of yardage. Burrow over 1.5 passing touchdowns feels safe too considering he’s done it five outings in a row. Chris Roling, Bengals Wire

Ravens: Gus Edwards anytime TD scorer (-105)

Despite having very little involvement in the passing game, Edwards has scored seven rushing touchdowns in the last four games. Heading into the second half of their dominant matchup against Seattle, Edwards had scored five touchdowns in his last 32 carries. The one-cut-and-go running back has logged 10-plus carries in eight of the season’s first 10 games, and he’ll be the player to watch anytime Baltimore ventures into the red zone. – Glenn Erby, Ravens Wire

Steelers at Browns: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

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Steelers: Kenny Pickett UNDER 181.5 passing yards (-115)

If Pickett throws for more than 200 yards against the Browns, it will be because he connects on a long touchdown pass to wide receiver George Pickens at some point. I look for the Steelers to run the football early, often and in every scenario possible. The Browns pass defense is among the best in the NFL so Pickett’s options to throw the ball deep are going to be seriously limited. Running backs Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris might lead the team with all the dump-offs and checkdowns Pickett has on Sunday. Curt Popejoy, Steelers Wire

Browns: Amari Cooper OVER 42.5 receiving yards (-110)

Amari Cooper racked up over 200 total yards in the three games where P.J. Walker started at quarterback. And while it will be Dorian Thompson-Robinson this week against the Steelers with Deshaun Watson sidelined for the rest of 2023, there is no reason to think the Browns will not rely on their top receiver to take the pressure off of the rookie quarterback. While Cooper had just one catch the last time that Thompson-Robinson started, the rookie now has a full week to prepare for this game rather than being thrust into the lineup last minute. The Browns will look to get the ball into Cooper’s hands with frequency. Cory Kinnan, Browns Wire

Bears at Lions: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

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Bears: Justin Fields OVER 48.5 rushing yards (-115)

Fields is making his return to the lineup this weekend, where he’ll be looking to continue his success on the ground against the Lions. Last season, Fields totaled 279 rushing yards in two meetings against Detroit (147 in Week 10 and 132 yards in Week 17). With Fields back in the lineup, expect Luke Getsy to utilize Fields’ athleticism to help set up some explosive plays on the ground. But this is a Lions defense that’s allowing just 79.1 rushing yards per game. I’m not expecting Fields to go off for 100-plus rushing yards for a third straight matchup, but even with just one or two explosive runs, he could clear 48.5 rushing yards. – Alyssa Barbieri, Bears Wire

Lions: Jared Goff OVER 274.5 passing yards (-115)

The Detroit offense is clicking nicely in both the run and pass game. Goff has averaged 310 passing yards in the last four Lions games and has the healthiest offensive line and receiving corps he’s had all season ready to roll against the Bears. Chicago’s pass defense has been tougher lately, but context matters; playing the QB-challenged Panthers and Saints boosts their numbers. Goff throws the Bears back to the reality of being a bottom-10 pass defense. – Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire

Chargers at Packers: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Chargers: OVER 44 points (-110)

Despite the cold weather, I still expect there to be plenty of points in this contest. The Chargers boast one of the top-scoring offenses in the NFL, averaging 26.6 points per game this season. Coming off a tough loss to the Lions, Justin Herbert and company will be plenty motivated to replicate the performance that saw them put up 38 points a weekend ago. The Packers may only be averaging nearly 20 points per game, but Los Angeles is surrendering 23.9 PPG. Look for something like a 27-21 final score. – Gavino Borquez, Chargers Wire

Packers: Aaron Jones OVER 52.5 rushing yards (-115)

Touches haven’t been an issue for Jones, who has 33 carries in two games since returning from a hamstring injury. The Packers now need more per carry. The Chargers got pushed around while allowing over 200 rushing yards to the Lions last week. Can the Packers figure out ways to get push up front and free up Jones for a big day? The guess here is yes. Zach Kruse, Packers Wire

Raiders at Dolphins: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

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Raiders: Raiders OVER 0.5 first-quarter points (+105)

The Raiders aren’t going to win this game. They just don’t have the speed on defense to keep pace. But can they score a single point in the first quarter against the Dolphins? Why not? The Raiders do have one of the best kickers in the league with Daniel Carlson and they usually do a good job on their first drive. Take the over here despite the offense being pretty unexplosive so far this season. Marcus Mosher, Raiders Wire

Dolphins: Jevon Holland OVER 5.5 combined tackles (-145)

Miami’s star safety has been playing all over the field in Vic Fangio’s defense, as he’s helping in a plethora of ways. So far this season, Holland has recorded 60 total tackles in eight games (averaging 7.5 per contest). While he was on pace to break the NFL record early in the season, Holland’s production has dropped a bit. However, it’s not so drastic that he should be expected to get under six tackles. He’s only recorded fewer than six tackles twice this season (against the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers in Weeks 5 and 6). Mike Masala, Dolphins Wire

Giants at Commanders: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Giants: Saquon Barkley OVER 18.5 receiving yards (-110)

Running back Saquon Barkley is the only offensive threat the Giants field at the moment and he’ll undoubtedly be the focal point on Sunday. Accordingly, the Commanders will load the box to stop him on the ground and with rookie QB Tommy DeVito under center, the Giants won’t be stretching the field much. Rather, they will be forced to resort to short- and mid-range throws, wide receiver screens, and dump-offs. That’s where Barkley will find his production in Week 11 – through the air. – Dan Benton, Giants Wire

Commanders: Sam Howell OVER 245.5 passing yards (-115)

Sam Howell has been on a roll since these teams last met in Week 7. In the past three games, Howell has passed for 1,034 yards and eight touchdowns. Washington has made changes on the offensive line since Week 7, and those changes have helped Howell. Washington’s identity is now throwing the ball. Howell will throw the ball between 40-50 times and, with that, is a solid bet to have another productive day. Bryan Manning, Commanders Wire

Cowboys at Panthers: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb’s longest reception OVER 26.5 yards (-115)

Lamb is in the midst of the best stretch of his career right now, going three straight games with at least 10 catches and 150 yards – the first player in NFL history to accomplish that. He should feast against the Panthers again this week, catching at least one pass for a big gain. Lamb has had a catch of at least 27 yards in six games this season, with another game where his longest catch was 26 yards. The Cowboys have gotten him heavily involved in recent weeks and that should continue on Sunday. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires

Panthers: Bryce Young OVER 10.5 rushing yards

Young isn’t exactly known for his wheels, and we may never see these Panthers design any runs for their 5-foot-10, 190-pound passer. But he has ‘em, and he’s not afraid to use ‘em. The No. 1 overall pick has hit the over on that 10.5-yard mark in five of his eight starts this season. In fact, he’s done it over the last three games—registering 11 rushing yards in Week 8, 41 in Week 9 and 18 in Week 10. With a fast and talented Dallas defense ahead, Young may have to high-tail it from the pocket quite a few times to avoid pressure. Anthony Rizzuti, Panthers Wire

Titans at Jaguars: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

Titans: Derrick Henry OVER 56.5 rushing yards (-115)

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Derrick Henry dominating the Jacksonville Jaguars. King Henry is averaging 105.6 rushing yards per game during his career against the Jags and he’s tallied 100 yards or more in each of his last four contests against Tennessee’s AFC South rival. Jacksonville does have a stout run defense but Henry still hitting the over here remains very feasible. Mike Moraitis, Titans Wire

Jaguars: Christian Kirk longest reception OVER 21.5 yards (-120)

Kirk and chunk plays are close to automatic. He has recorded at least one reception for more than 25 yards in eight straight games. Even when the Jaguars offense was borderline nonexistent against the 49ers in Week 10, Kirk still had five receptions for at least 15 yards and two that gained more than 25 yards. The Titans defense isn’t particularly susceptible to big plays, but it also doesn’t look like a unit that’ll end Kirk’s streak. Adam Stites, Jaguars Wire

Cardinals at Texans: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

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Cardinals: Kyler Murray OVER 242.5 passing yards (-115)

Murray had 249 yards in his 2023 debut. The Texans have allowed over 250 net passing yards (quarterback passing yards – yards lost on sacks) in five of their last seven games. – Jess Root, Cards Wire

Texans: C.J. Stroud OVER 1.5 TD passes (-175)

The No. 2 overall pick has five games with multiple TDs, and three games with exactly two. Though Stroud followed up his five-TD game with just one against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Arizona Cardinals defense has given up 15 pass TDs on the year, tied with the Detroit Lions for sixth-most in the league. Mark Lane, Texans Wire

Buccaneers at 49ers: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Buccaneers: Rachaad White OVER 26.5 receiving yards (+100)

I used this one last week, but this feels like free money with odds like this. The Bucs remain committed to getting Rachaad White in space, and that includes screen passes — one of which he took for a 43-yard touchdown last week. White has pretty much doubled this number in his last four showings with the Bucs, and he’ll likely do it again despite the horror movie duo of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw at linebacker. Screen passes to White are how Tampa Bay substitutes for its terrible run game, so hammer the over here. – River Wells, Bucs Wire

49ers: Brandon Aiyuk OVER 65.5 receiving yards (-115)

This season Aiyuk has alternated between huge game and mediocre game. He’s gone under 65.5 receiving yards in four games, and over that mark in five contests. We’re going to follow that pattern here. He went for just 55 yards against the Jaguars in Week 10, which means he’s due to go over 65.5 against the Buccaneers. Last season against Tampa Bay Aiyuk hauled in two balls for 57 yards and a touchdown. That was QB Brock Purdy’s first start though. He’s now become more reliant on Aiyuk who should find plenty of room in a Buccaneers secondary that’s struggled in coverage this season. Kyle Madson, Niners Wire

Jets at Bills: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

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Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Jets: Josh Allen over 0.5 interceptions (-160)

This may have a little Bills flavor to it, but this is a credit to the Jets’ defense. Everyone is talking about the number of interceptions (10) that Bills quarterback Josh Allen has thrown this season. How much of them are on him is up for debate, but the fact remains he is throwing interceptions this season. Three of them came in Week 1 courtesy of Jets safety Jordan Whitehead. The Jets only need one interception for this to hit, and they can certainly do that. Billy Riccette, Jets Wire

Bills: Stefon Diggs over 73.5 receiving yards (-110)

The Bills have had their struggles with the Jets (and many others) in 2023. But Stefon Diggs has not. In Buffalo’s overtime loss to the Jets, Diggs had 10 catches and 102 total yards, well surpassing this total. This line is also one that feels like you’ve got to take advantage of because of it being pretty low. Diggs’ line has surpassed 80 for some games this year. It’s dipped a bit likely because of the Jets’ talented defense and Diggs only putting up 34 yards last week. Bills receivers have a knack for bounce backs so bet on Diggs to turn one in. Nick Wojton, Bills Wire

Seahawks at Rams: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

(Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images)

Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 42.5 receiving yards (-120)

It took Seattle some time to integrate JSN into the offense as he recovered from a wrist injury he suffered during the preseason. However, since Week 6 he has been much more involved in the passing game. Since that matchup with the Bengals JSN has gone for 48 or more receiving yards in four of the last five games. – Tim Weaver, Seahawks Wire

Rams: Darrell Henderson Jr.’s longest rush UNDER 11.5 yards (-105)

There are a couple of things working in favor of the under here. In the Rams’ last game against the Packers, Royce Freeman out-carried Henderson, 12-10. Freeman has also been the more efficient back by a wide margin since Kyren Williams went down, averaging 4.3 yards per carry compared to just 2.8 for Henderson. It’s reasonable to think the Rams might lean more on Freeman this week instead of Henderson, given the latter’s struggles. It’s also worth noting that Henderson has just one run longer than 7 yards this season, which was his first run of the year – a 16-yarder against the Steelers. Since then, his next-longest run is 7 yards, which he had two of in that same game against Pittsburgh. Between his potentially smaller workload and lack of explosiveness, it’s unlikely Henderson breaks off a long one. – Cameron DaSilva, Rams Wire

Vikings at Broncos: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

(Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

Vikings: Josh Dobbs OVER 231.5 passing yards (-115)

There is no way to put it other than the running game isn’t good. Alexander Mattison is likely to miss the game after suffering a concussion this past Sunday against the New Orleans Saints and Ty Chandler is struggling to find the hole in zone running concepts. Dobbs threw for 268 yards last week in his first start as a Viking and the team has eclipsed that total in seven of their ten games. With the running game being a big liability, expect Dobbs to top his passing total. Tyler Forness, Vikings Wire

Broncos: UNDER 46 total points (-110)

The Vikings have had five games below a 46-point total this season and the Broncos have hit under 46 total points in three of their last four games. Denver’s defense has been hot in recent weeks Minnesota QB Josh Dobbs has five interceptions and 11 fumbles this season. This matchup could prove to be an ugly defensive battle. – Jon Heath, Broncos Wire

Eagles at Chiefs: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Eagles: D’Andre Swift OVER 58.5 yards rushing (-110)

Swift averages 68.2 yards per game and has gone six straight games without 100 yards on the ground, but he’s still among the top six in overall rushing yards. Entering Week 11, the Chiefs allow 4.5 yards per rush attempt, the sixth-highest mark in the entire league. Also, Kansas City has the second-worst rush defense in the NFL by EPA/play standards and ranks 26th in success rate. A stout night by Swift keeps Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense on the sidelines. Glenn Erby, Eagles Wire

Chiefs: Skyy Moore OVER 15.5 yards receiving (-115)

Moore hasn’t been nearly as productive as many Kansas City Chiefs fans had hoped he would be in his second season, but 16 yards is a pretty low bar to convert this bet. On an offense quarterbacked by reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes, anything is possible, and Andy Reid should be expected to spread the ball around as much as possible to keep the Philadelphia Eagles off balance. One reception in space is all it would take for Moore to make this bet hit. John Dillon, Chiefs Wire

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