NFL Week 15 best bets: One wager to make for every team

USA Today

With the arrival of Week 15 comes the end of bye weeks, which means we’ll have a full slate of 16 games this week in the NFL. Better yet, we get games on Thursday night, Saturday, Sunday and Monday night, which means there are four days to bet on games!

The week begins with an admittedly underwhelming matchup between the Chargers and Raiders, but Sunday night features a battle of two AFC contenders in the Ravens and Jaguars, with the Eagles and Seahawks capping off the week on Monday night.

Below, we have one bet to make for every team this week, including player props, moneyline bets and over/under totals.

All odds are courtesy of BetMGM.

Chargers at Raiders: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Chargers: Austin Ekeler OVER 31.5 receiving yards (-115)

Without Keenan Allen, who is out with a heel injury, Ekeler should be a factor in the passing game. Easton Stick is making his first NFL start and is likely going to resort to Ekeler as a checkdown, especially if he is in the face of pressure. Ekeler has went over this number in three of the last five games. The Raiders are allowing 33 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs. Gavino Borquez, Chargers Wire

Raiders: Raiders UNDER 17.5 points (-130)

The Raiders can’t score with Aidan O’Connell under center. They were shutout in Week 14 (at home) and now, they could be without RB Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. Their only chance of scoring a bunch of points is on defense, but you can’t really count on that. Take the Raiders under 17.5 points and expect a really low-scoring game on Thursday. Marcus Mosher, Raiders Wire

Vikings at Bengals: Saturday, 1 p.m. ET


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Vikings: Bengals UNDER 21.5 total points (-120)

Normally this would be a player specific prop. However, even at -120, this is just too good to pass up. Brian Flores’ defense has been playing lights out over the past few weeks nad it’s shown up on the scoreboard. Over the last four games, the Vikings haven’t allowed a team to break 21.5 points and have allowed an average of 13.0 points per game. They are coming out of a shutout of the Las Vegas Raiders and could have a huge performance against a backup quarterback in Jake Browning, a player the Vikings know well. Tyler Forness, Vikings Wire

Bengals: Jake Browning OVER 239.5 passing yards (-115)

Browning has breezed past this number twice since the major offensive overhaul to get him comfortable, throwing for 275 yards last week and 354 the week prior. He had 227 against a stingy Steelers defense before that while trying to run Joe Burrow’s offense. While the Vikings defense is fantastic, wideouts like Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are yards-after-catch machines, which will inflate Browning’s numbers. So too will the continued impressive implementation of a screen game that helps him pile up the numbers. Chris Roling, Bengals Wire

Steelers at Colts: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Steelers: Mitch Trubisky UNDER 200.5 passing yards (-120)

At this point, we have no confidence in Mitch Trubisky to get this passing game on track. The Steelers must win this game so we expect them to lean heavily on the rushing offense and take the football out of Trubisky’s hands as much as possible. Last week, Trubisky was only able to throw for 190 yards against the Patriots. Curt Popejoy, Steelers Wire

Colts: Michael Pittman Jr. OVER 6.5 receptions (-150)

There have been fewer players more consistent than Pittman this season, which is a statement we’ve been saying for weeks. He has six consecutive games with at least eight receptions and 10 games overall hitting that mark. Pittman is the catalyst in the passing game and even though the Steelers secondary has been playing better in recent weeks, this is a bet with a high chance of coming true. Kevin Hickey, Colts Wire

Broncos at Lions: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Broncos: Courtland Sutton OVER 52.5 receiving yards (-120)

Courtland Sutton has totaled at least 53 receiving yards in each of his last five games and eight times overall this season. Sutton is clearly quarterback Russell Wilson’s favorite target, and he doesn’t need many opportunities to top 53 yards (he had three catches last week, two catches in Week 13 and three catches in Week 12). – Jon Heath, Broncos Wire

Lions: David Montgomery OVER 67.5 rushing yards (-120)

David Montgomery has floated around the 67-yard mark on the ground even in recent games where he hasn’t been featured often, and also playing against better run defenses than Denver brings to Detroit. The Broncos allow a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry. Factor in that the Lions’ exceptional run-blocking offensive line is as healthy as it has been since October, and Montgomery has a shot at hitting the over here before halftime. Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire

Bears at Browns: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

Bears: D’Onta Foreman OVER 39.5 rushing yards (-120)

This matchup could call for a run-heavy game plan for Chicago, which means Foreman could be poised for a big day. Foreman has emerged as the Bears’ lead back this season, even with the returns of Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. Johnson has rushed for at least 50 yards when getting at least 10 carries in a game this season. While Justin Fields’ rushing ability will no doubt be a factor in the run game, there will be plenty of opportunities for Foreman, where he should easily clear the 39.5-yard rushing mark. – Alyssa Barbieri, Bears Wire

Browns: Elijah Moore OVER 38.5 receiving yards (-115)

While Moore got off to a slow start as a member of the Browns this season, he has gone over 40 yards in five straight games. Now with QB Joe Flacco under center the rest of the way out, who he played with as a member of the New York Jets, Moore’s target count will continue to stay elevated over the last four seasons. He has seen six or more targets over his last five games, including 12 targets in Flacco’s first start with the Browns. And while Chicago’s pass defense has played well over their last five games, there is a level of confidence in HC Kevin Stefanski’s ability to scheme open his playmakers. Moore will see his fair share of targets. – Cory Kinnan, Browns Wire

Buccaneers at Packers: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Buccaneers: Rachaad White OVER 80.5 rushing yards

To put it kindly, Green Bay’s rushing defense is absolutely deplorable. They’re 28th in the league in yards per rush and 31st in rush yards/game, and the Bucs have found their own run game at just the right time. Rachaad White has had two 100-yard rushing games in the last three weeks and ran for 84 yards against the Panthers, so expect him to go off in Green Bay with that recent momentum. – River Wells, Bucs Wire

Packers: Tucker Kraft OVER 35.5 receiving yards (-115)

Kraft has over 35 receiving yards in back-to-back games, including a career-best 64 yards on Monday night vs. the Giants, while the Buccaneers have allowed the seventh most yards to tight ends this season. Last week, Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith combined for seven catches and 84 yards against the Bucs. The Packers have injuries at receiver and need Kraft to play a bigger role in the passing game on Sunday. Zach Kruse, Packers Wire

Texans at Titans: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

Texans: Texans total 1st-half touchdowns OVER 0.5 (-160)

Even if the Texans have to go with Davis Mills over sensational C.J. Stroud, the offense will still find a way to get on the board. While the Texans were 5-19-1 over the past two seasons with Mills under center, they were never shutout of any games. Houston fans could count on their former third-rounder from Stanford to get at least one garbage touchdown. – Mark Lane, Texans Wire

Titans: Texans UNDER 19.5 points

The Texans are likely to be without quarterback C.J. Stroud, leaving them with a massive downgrade in backup quarterback, Davis Mills, who may not have the team’s top receiver in Nico Collins. Adding to that, the Titans’ defense is giving up just 18.2 points per game at Nissan Stadium this season.

Mike Moraitis, Titans Wire

Jets at Dolphins: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Jets: Jets OVER 14.5 points (+110)

The offense finally started buzzing a little with their 30-point performance against the Houston Texans. Zach Wilson has a little more confidence heading into Sunday’s game against the Dolphins. New York scored 13 points on Black Friday against Miami but the touchdown was from the defense. The offense could find a groove and at least get to 15 points Sunday, so we’ll take the over here for the Jets. – Billy Riccette, Jets Wire

Dolphins: OVER 37.5 total points (-110)

On Black Friday, the last time that the Dolphins and Jets played, these two teams combined for 47 points. They’ve also scored a combined 47.1 points per game in their games this year. While Miami may have showed some signs of slowing down last week, the Jets offense looked to find a rhythm. Even if they both have strong defenses, there’s a real chance for defensive points from both sides. Mike Masala, Dolphins Wire

Chiefs at Patriots: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes OVER 0.5 interceptions (-110)

Patrick Mahomes has taken a huge step back in 2023, and his commitment to ball security is almost non-existent. This marks the second-straight week that a Mahomes interception is my choice as a best bet, and while it never feels good to put money on a reigning MVP to make a mistake, the only thing that has been consistent in the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense this year has been inconsistency. While the Chiefs are likely to dismantle the New England Patriots in the box score, Mahomes seems destined to make at least one bad decision in the pocket to turn the ball over. John Dillon, Chiefs Wire

Patriots: Travis Kelce UNDER 5.5 receptions (+115)

Bill Belichick is notorious for taking the one thing teams do the best away. The Chiefs are seriously lacking at the skill positions, outside of tight end Travis Kelce and running back Isiah Pacheco. An even bigger problem is the fact that Pacheco missed the last game and could be too banged up to play on Sunday as well. That leaves Kelce as the obvious player Belichick will aim to take away in this matchup. Don’t sleep on the Patriots defense putting up a fight. Despite all of the offensive struggles, that unit has been tough all season. – Jordy McElroy, Patriots Wire

Giants at Saints: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Giants: Giants moneyline (+225)

The Giants are far from a juggernaut but Vegas is off base with this one. New York has won three straight behind QB Tommy DeVito and their offense is beginning to find a rhythm. Their defense has also been dominant, forcing 11 turnovers over their past four games. Meanwhile, the Saints have gone 1-3 over the past four games and QB Derek Carr is dealing with a multitude of injuries. Their locker room is on the brink of a mutiny and they’re more likely to fight each other than put up a fight against the G-Men. – Dan Benton, Giants Wire

Saints: Saints UNDER 20.5 points (+120)

Points have come at a premium for Derek Carr’s offense. The Saints may have put up 28 points in back-to-back weeks, but that’s with the help of a special teams fumble recovery for a touchdown against the Panthers and three scoring runs from Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill against the Lions. Carr has struggled in the red zone all season. On top of that, the Giants have held opponents to 20 or fewer points in five of their last eight games (giving up 22 to the Packers last week). New York’s blitz-heavy defense is a bad matchup for New Orleans. – John Sigler, Saints Wire

Falcons at Panthers: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Falcons: Atlanta OVER 19.5 total points (+100)

The Falcons offense has lacked consistency all season, but the team has too much talent to be held under 20 points by Carolina. In Week 14, Atlanta scored 15 points in the fourth quarter alone. The Panthers have allowed the second most points in the NFL (341) through their first 13 games and they have held their opponents to under 20 points just three times all season. Bet on the Falcons to score 20 points and you can double your money. – Matt Urben, Falcons Wire

Panthers: Bryce Young OVER 2.5 rushing attempts (+100)

Taking off from the pocket isn’t exactly Young’s forte. But the slippery rookie has shown that he isn’t afraid to do so, especially when that pocket is constantly collapsing. Young put his impressive wheels on display in Week 14, where he collected 40 rushing yards and linebacker Demario Davis’ ankles. He’s recorded at least three rushing attempts in six of his 12 starts, including the regular-season opener against the Falcons. Anthony Rizzuti, Panthers Wire

Commanders at Rams: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

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Commanders: Curtis Samuel OVER 40.5 receiving yards (-115)

Samuel has been QB Sam Howell’s favorite target in recent weeks. Terry McLaurin didn’t have one catch in Week 13 and had only three targets. Samuel runs a variety of routes and has been a reliable target for Howell on short and intermediate routes. With Howell often under duress, Samuel has earned the trust of Howell and that should continue over the final four games. Expect Howell to lead Washington’s wide receivers in targets in Week 15. Bryan Manning, Commanders Wire

Rams: Cooper Kupp OVER 73.5 yards receiving (-120)

Kupp looked much healthier on Sunday in Baltimore, another week removed from his ankle injury that’s lingered for several games. He torched the Ravens for 115 yards on eight catches, including a couple of big gains that went for 30-plus yards. Against the league’s worst pass defense, Kupp could be in for another huge game. He gets a favorable matchup against Benjamin St-Juste in the slot, a cornerback who’s allowed 762 yards this season. It’s always tricky with Kupp and Puka Nacua both seeing a lot of targets from Matthew Stafford, but I like Kupp in this spot after the performance he put together in tough conditions last week. – Cameron DaSilva, Rams Wire

49ers at Cardinals: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner

49ers: Alternate total over 50.5 (+115)

The total for this game (48) isn’t far off this 50.5 number, and taking the over on the standard total would certainly make sense. However, the extra juice is worth the squeeze here given how banged up the 49ers are on defense. Defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead could both miss Sunday’s game, along San Francisco’s best cornerback Charvarius Ward.. Arizona’s defense didn’t provide a ton of resistance against San Francisco back in Week 4, and now the 49ers are cruising on that side of the ball at an even higher level than they were earlier in the season. It’s easy to draw a line that connects the 49ers to 30-plus points. Their injuries on the other side of the ball, combined with the return of quarterback Kyler Murray for Arizona, make it equally easy to draw a path to the Cardinals hanging up some points on the 49ers. I like the Cardinals +12.5 on the spread, and I like this alternate total where a 30-21 or 31-20 49ers win will get you some plus money. Parlaying Cardinals +12.5 with the total of 48 (+260) plays as well. – Kyle Madson, Niners Wire

Cardinals: James Conner OVER 51.5 rushing yards (-110)

The Cardinals’ offense moves through Conner, who had 105 yards and two touchdowns in his last game. He rushed for 52 on only 11 carries when the two teams met in Week 4 and he is likely to get more opportunities this weekend. Add in the possible absence of 49ers defensive linemen Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave, this should be an easy bet. In fact, once the alternate rushing lines come out, don’t hesitate to take likely plus odds on 70+ or 75+ rushing yards for Conner. – Jess Root, Cards Wire

Cowboys at Bills: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

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Cowboys: Cowboys moneyline (+110)

Dallas leaves the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium for the first time in a month to travel to blustery Buffalo in the middle of December. But wait, Mother Nature has decided to give Dallas a pass and it will be around 48 degrees come kickoff which is downright balmy. The Bills play on turf at Highmark Stadium, and the Cowboys have won 21 straight on the surface. – K.D. Drummond, Cowboys Wire

Bills: Josh Allen OVER 259.5 passing yards (-115)

Is this a typo? Jump on it before it becomes one. For numerous reasons, this should hit. At that top, Allen is averaging 265.2 yards per game this season, more than this over/under. On top of that, the Cowboys are one of the very few offenses in the NFL that are clearly more explosive than the Bills offense. That’s only going to lend into Allen passing the ball plenty of times in this game. In fact, teasing this to an even higher number might pay dividends, but the safer play is just attacking the initial yards total. Nick Wojton, Bills Wire

Ravens at Jaguars: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Ravens: Lamar Jackson OVER 215.5 yards passing (-115)

In the Week 14 win over the Rams, Lamar Jackson was dynamic, logging 316 passing yards, 70 rushing yards, and 3 TDs with a 92.8 passer rating. Jacksonville enters this matchup 31st in the NFL, allowing 265.2 yards per game through the air. The Jaguars only surrender 92 yards per game, and they’ll be facing a Ravens passing offense hitting its stride and featuring elite rookie WR Zay Flowers. Glenn Erby, Ravens Wire

Jaguars: Travis Etienne OVER 21.5 receiving yards (-120)

Etienne averages 29.5 receiving yards per game and has at least 30 in each of the Jaguars’ last three games. Getting the running back involved in the passing game will be tough against a Ravens defense with some elite coverage linebackers, but it’ll still be an emphasis for Jacksonville. With Christian Kirk out of action and the running game struggling to get going, there’s really not a lot of other options. Expect Etienne to get targeted a few times and pick up at least a couple dozen yards as a receiver. Adam Stites, Jaguars Wire

Eagles at Seahawks: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Eagles: Dallas Goedert OVER 41.5 receiving yards (-115)

Seattle is 25th in the NFL in pass defense, and safety Jamal Adams has been a liability against the pass, setting up a fruitful matchup for Eagles TE Dallas Goedert. The talented tight end has two games this season with more than 50 receiving yards, and Philadelphia enters Monday night needing to jump-start a stagnant offensive unit. Glenn Erby, Eagles Wire

Seahawks: Seahawks moneyline (+165)

There’s no question that the Eagles are a better team this year than the Seahawks, who have been a total mess since the Ravens beat them by 30+. However, Philly isn’t playing much better right now – especially on defense. Their defensive issues combined with Seattle’s desperation, home-field advantage, historic dominance against the Eagles under Pete Carroll and their record in Monday night games makes me believe they’ll find a way to win this one. Somehow. Tim Weaver, Seahawks Wire

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