It’s a beautiful thing when the NFL has some Saturday games, and it’s made even better when all three games offer up some fantastic value for player props. We’ve got a pick for each game here for a strong Week 15 start.
T.J. Hockenson over 52.5 receiving yards (-115 ESPN)
Before I get to why I love T.J. Hockenson on Saturday, let’s address the two negatives working against him. The first is simple: we have Nick Mullens in at quarterback this week, and who knows how effective he can truly be.
The presence of Justin Jefferson (questionable) has had a negative skew on Hockenson’s yards this year (51.2 yards/game with him vs. 76 yards/game without him), but the matchup to me still calls for a big game from the Vikings TE.
Cincinnati has been unable to slow down tight ends. Over the past six games, here are the results from opposing TEs who see the Bengals:
- Evan Engram: 9 catches, 82 yards
- Pat Freiermuth: 9 catches, 120 yards
- Mark Andrews: injured on first drive, 2 catches, 23 yards
- Dalton Schultz: 4 catches, 71 yards
- Dalton Kincaid: 10 catches, 81 yards
- George Kittle: 9 catches, 149 yards
It doesn’t get much better than that, and now it’s Hockenson’s turn to capitalize.
When Mullens came in, no player was targeted more than Hockenson’s four, with all four targets converting to receptions for 45 yards. I am happy to spin Jefferson’s absence or presence as a positive in this game. If he plays, great, less attention on Hockenson from the Cincinnati defense. If he doesn’t, or if he has to leave early, great, more targets coming Hockenson’s way.