NFL wild card best bets: One wager to make for every team this weekend

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Browns: Kareem Hunt anytime TD (+110)

Tossing in a Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown has yet to fail me this season. He is not nearly the back he was in his younger years, but Hunt is still a short-yardage battering ram who will get the job done at the goal line. He has done it time and time again. He is averaging just three yards per carry this season, but has a massive nine touchdowns on the ground for the Browns; the majority of which have come in goal-to-go situations. As the Browns look to stay hot through the air, you can bet they will look to slam Hunt into the endzone if they get into striking distance. – Cory Kinnan, Browns Wire

Texans: Nico Collins OVER 73.5 yards receiving (-115)

Collins has excelled as the Texans’ No. 1 receiver with Tank Dell out. Since Dell’s injury, Collins has had at least 80 yards receiving in each of his last four games where he’s played at least 50% of the offensive snaps. The Browns boast one of the best defenses in the NFL but Denzel Ward is questionable due to a knee injury suffered in practice. Even if Ward plays, I like Collins to go over this number after doing so in each of his last four full games. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires

(Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

Dolphins: RB De’Von Achane anytime TD (+115)

Achane scored 11 touchdowns in 11 games played this season, including some contests where he barely got any run at the beginning of the year or when he was returning from injury. The Chiefs’ defense hasn’t been great against the run, as they’re 32nd in run-stop win rate and 27th in run-defense DVOA. Even if Raheem Mostert (questionable with knee and ankle injuries) returns to action, the rookie from Texas A&M is still a threat to score any time he touches the ball. – Mike Masala, Dolphins Wire

Chiefs: Mecole Hardman OVER 14.5 yards receiving (-110)

The Kansas City Chiefs’ receiving corps has had an absolutely atrocious season, but with the reigning MVP under center, Andy Reid will be forced to throw the ball against the Miami Dolphins’ secondary. While Mecole Hardman has been an afterthought in Kansas City’s offense to this point, his strong showing in Week 18 against the Chargers may earn him snaps in the playoffs. As a familiar asset (read: known commodity) for Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get a few targets against Miami. His speed makes Hardman’s ability after the catch a huge asset, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to think that he could rack up 15 yards on a screen pass. – John Dillon, Chiefs Wire

Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Steelers: Najee Harris OVER 59.5 rushing yards (-110)

Last week in bad weather conditions, Najee Harris threw the offense onto his back and carried it to the tune of 26 carries and 112 yards. This was Harris’ second 100+ yard rushing game in a row and in a windy, snowy Buffalo look for Harris to grind it out on the ground and easily top that number on a day when there might be no passing game to speak of. – Curt Popejoy, Steelers Wire

Bills: Josh Allen anytime TD (-105)

In a shocking twist, the Bills did not have a touchdown from Josh Allen in their Week 18 AFC East clinching win over the Miami Dolphins. However, that snapped a touchdown streak for Allen. Expect him to get back on that horse. While Allen did not QB sneak one into the end zone in Miami, the “tush push” maneuver was still used plenty by Buffalo in short-yardage situations. That’s likely to continue against the Steelers, especially considering the weather forecast. – Nick Wojton, Bills Wire

Green Bay Packers receiver Jayden Reed

Packers: Jayden Reed anytime TD (+140)

Reed, who scored 10 total touchdowns during an impressive rookie season, has found the end zone in five straight away games. He also scored in back-to-back games indoors on an artificial surface (at Detroit, at Minnesota). The rookie slot receiver is fast and tough and perfectly built for making plays on the turf. Expect him to get opportunities on vertical routes, on gadget run plays and in the red zone. The Packers can’t afford to miss out on scoring opportunities inside the 20, and Reed might be Matt LaFleur’s best scoring weapon. – Zach Kruse, Packers Wire

Cowboys: Rico Dowdle to score and Cowboys to win (+160)

The backup running back for Dallas has scored four touchdowns on the season, and is primed to get to the end zone once again in the wild-card round. Three of his scores have come on home turf. The Packers have given up 15 rushing scores on the ground thus far, but Dowdle is just as likely to catch a screen or a dump off and take it to the house. He’s emerged as a viable backup to Tony Pollard despite the Cowboys’ run-blocking issues in 2023. – K.D. Drummond, Cowboys Wire

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Rams: Demarcus Robinson OVER 3.5 receptions (+100)

Robinson has taken over as the Rams’ No. 3 receiver and is capitalizing on that opportunity with some impactful play as of late. In his last two games with Matthew Stafford, Robinson has caught six passes in each one on 16 total targets. He was also targeted 10 times in the Rams’ overtime loss to the Ravens, though he only caught three of those passes. I also like the over on his receiving prop of 41.5 yards, but the value of taking him for at least four receptions at +100 is too good to pass up – especially in a game where the Rams are expected to throw it a bunch. – Cameron DaSilva, Rams Wire

Lions: Lions defense/special teams first TD scorer (+1700)

This is one of those situations where there aren’t any real obvious lines or rich payouts for more traditional bets, so why not try and maximize some payback? The Lions special teams have been sharp lately, including the potential for a fake punt or field goal to produce a touchdown. The Rams special teams have struggled in coverage, putting a return touchdown in play, too. A pick-six off old friend Matthew Stafford is in play, as is a strip-sack and scoop-and-score. The payout on this one is more appealing than the likelihood of some other outcomes. – Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Eagles: D’Andre Swift OVER 60.5 rushing yards (-115)

Star quarterback Jalen Hurts is nursing an injured middle finger on his right throwing hand, and he’s yet to attempt a pass in practice heading into Saturday’s scheduled session. With Hurts dealing with a hand injury, Monday night offers a prime opportunity for the Eagles offensive line to establish some dominance in the postseason after inconsistent play to close out the postseason. Swift ranked 5th in the NFL with a career-high 1,049 rushing yards (first 1,000+ yard campaign), trailing only Christian McCaffrey (1,459), Derrick Henry (1,167), Kyren Williams (1,144) and James Cook (1,122). Philadelphia has featured 1,000+ yard rushers in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2013-14 (LeSean McCoy) thanks to Swift, and he’s a good bet to top 60+ yards rushing on Monday night. – Glenn Erby, Eagles Wire

Buccaneers: Bucs moneyline (+135)

Let’s keep it simple, shall we? The Bucs are not a phenomenal football team, but they have a few things going for them — they’re playing football at home, they’re healthier than the Eagles and the Eagles have been on a crippling downturn for more than a month. Jalen Hurts only just started throwing on Thursday and A.J. Brown could be hurt, and given those two things, a straight-up bet on the Bucs at plus odds may be the way to go when it comes to a game between two teams that have seen better days. – River Wells, Bucs Wire