NFL futures: Odds and a bet on who will lead league in receiving this season

Yardbarker

There is one last yardage market we have yet to delve in to in the NFL futures space, that being receiving yardage. Volume is king for a market like this, and there is no shortage of star WR1s who can take the crown here.

Favorites to lead NFL in Receiving Yards

Regular season only, odds courtesy of DraftKings.

  1. Tyreek Hill (+600)
  2. CeeDee Lamb (+700)
  3. Ja’Marr Chase (+900)
  4. AJ Brown (+1000)
  5. Amon-Ra St. Brown (+1100)
  6. Justin Jefferson (+1100)
  7. Puka Nacua (+1400)
  8. Garrett Wilson (+1600)
  9. Drake London (+1800)
  10. Davante Adams (+1800)

Thanks to an explosive season that saw him average 15.1 yards per catch, it was Tyreek Hill taking home the receiving yardage lead last season with Miami.

We had five WRs go for 1,400+ yards last year, and the winner of this market very likely is wrapping the year with 1,800+ yards, as the winners over the last three seasons since the NFL expanded to 17 games has all been at that mark or higher.

Our favorite bet(s)

CeeDee Lamb (+700)

This isn’t the flashiest bet as the second-favorite, but that doesn’t mean it’s a bad look. CeeDee Lamb was just 50 yards shy of usurping Tyreek Hill as last season’s league leader in receiving yards. More than that, this is a bet very much baked in volume.

Lamb led the NFL last year with 135 receptions and was tops with 181 targets. Volume can be king in a market like this, and there’s a steep drop-off on Dallas for their next pass catcher.

This offense figures to once again operate through Lamb, who at time of writing is still fighting for his second contract. Dallas was one of the pass-happiest teams in the league last year, and Lamb will be the focal point once again.

Lamb has been inside the top six in receiving yardage in back-to-back seasons.

Long-shot: Garrett Wilson (+1600)

This bet is very much tied to the angle we shared earlier this week for passing yardage. There is the potential here on the Jets for a discounted rate on an angle everyone loved just 12 months ago.

Aaron Rodgers should be good to go this season and should have no shortage of motivation to extract everything he possibly can from his age-40 season. We loved the potential of this Rodgers-Garrett Wilson duo before last year, and nothing has really changed. 

Wilson is a year removed from winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, and despite having guys like Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle throwing him passes, he still finished with 1,042 yards, and perhaps more importantly, was fourth in targets.

If those targets remain, and he upgrades to Rodgers, the sky is the limit for this third-year receiver.

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