What’s best for now may not be what’s best for later, and when the Detroit Lions set their 53-man roster next week, that is the conundrum they will face.
Lions coach Dan Campbell said last week that he and general manager Brad Holmes have a fine line to walk with some of their pending roster decisions, where present value and future potential do not perfectly align.
“The end game has always been about what’s best for us long-term, ultimately,” Campbell said. “However, not at the expense of us being non-competitive or not having a chance to compete. Not at that expense. So look, we got a lot of young guys on this roster that we like and a lot of them need development, but we like them. And so we’ll just see where this thing plays out.”
[ Jared Goff, D’Andre Swift among starters likely to sit vs. Steelers ]
The Lions currently have 84 players on their roster. They must be down to 80 by Tuesday, and have until 4 p.m. Aug. 31 to reach the 53-man roster limit.
This is my second crack at predicting the initial 53-man roster will play out, and my first since late spring. Not much has changed, especially on offense. But the Lions do have a few back-end roster decisions left to make.
Is young defensive back Bobby Price an important enough special teams player, and does he have enough future value as a cornerback, to warrant a roster spot? Is A.J. Parker ready for nickel duties, or will Nickell Robey-Coleman or Corn Elder occupy that position in Week 1? Does Bruce Hector deserve to be rewarded for his strong training camp, or is it better to give Jahlani Tavai one last chance?
I’ll take one more guess at this next week, after the third and final preseason game. But for now, and not taking into account anything that happened on the field Saturday against the Pittsburgh Steelers, here is my best guess at how the Lions’ 53-man roster shakes out.
Quarterback (3)
In: Jared Goff, Tim Boyle, David Blough.
Prediction: Both Boyle and Blough missed practice time last week with injuries, but there probably isn’t enough time for recent addition Jordan Ta’amu to make the team. The biggest question is whether the Lions will keep three quarterbacks. I think they will, as Dan Campbell seems to have an affinity for Blough, who has split second-team reps with Boyle most of the summer. If the Lions were teeming with talent at another position, this might be a harder call. But for now, I’ve got the Lions going with three QBs.
Running back (4)
In: D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, Jermar Jefferson, Jason Cabinda.
Prediction: Nothing has changed from when I did my way-too-early roster prediction in June. Swift and Williams will have a timeshare of sorts, with Williams ready to shoulder additional work if Swift’s groin injury flares up. Jefferson is a safe No. 3. He was a seventh-round pick and his run instincts were evident early in camp. Cabinda is the only fullback on the roster and can fill some tight end duties in a pinch. Craig Reynolds was a nice preseason story, scoring a touchdown about nine minutes after he signed, but short of an explosion by him or another back in one of the final two preseason games, I don’t know how the Lions go heavy at this position. Undrafted rookie Dedrick Mills is a practice squad candidate.
Receiver (5)
In: Tyrell Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, Quintez Cephus, Breshad Perriman.
Prediction: It is not uncommon for NFL teams to keep six receivers, and while the Lions may prefer to do that, I don’t think the talent or preseason production warrants such a move. Williams, St. Brown and Raymond have been running first-team most of the summer, while projected starter Perriman has been injured much of camp. Perriman didn’t flash much before his injury, but he has $2 million in guaranteed money so he’s probably safe. Cephus has steadily improved since spring, while spring standout Victor Bolden has trended the other way of late. I haven’t seen enough from Damion Ratley to put him on as a sixth receiver, and while Tom Kennedy has had a good camp, there’s not a ton of value in keeping an extra slot receiver who has limited duties on special teams.
Tight end (3)
In: T.J. Hockenson, Darren Fells, Alize Mack.
Prediction: The Lions have just four tight ends on their roster, and as much as they will use two-tight sets, it’s a good bet that three make the team. I’m giving Mack the slightest of edges over undrafted rookie Brock Wright. Mack played for Campbell in New Orleans and offers more as a receiver, while Wright should make it through to practice squad. This is a coin flip, one that may not be determined until next week — and a position the Lions may look to address on the waiver wire.
Offensive line (8)
In: Taylor Decker, Jonah Jackson, Frank Ragnow, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Penei Sewell, Tyrell Crosby, Logan Stenberg, Evan Brown.
Prediction: This is a little unconventional, keeping just eight offensive linemen, but the Lions see Crosby as a sort of super sub. He would be the first man up at either guard or tackle spot in the event of injury, and if something happens to Frank Ragnow, Jonah Jackson would slide to center and Crosby would fill in at left guard. Crosby has not practiced in three weeks because of a strained hamstring, so his health could complicate this plan. But the Lions’ second-string line has struggled this summer and most of last year’s roster rules, where teams can elevate two players to the active roster on gamedays, remain in place. Matt Nelson gets nudged out here for the eighth spot by Brown because Vaitai has emergency tackle flexibility, too.
Defensive line (6)
In: Michael Brockers, Nick Williams, Alim McNeill, Levi Onwuzurike, Da’Shawn Hand, Bruce Hector.
Prediction: Nelson’s roster spot went to Bruce Hector. Admittedly, six seems like one too many interior defensive linemen to carry, but Hector has played his way onto the roster and as Campbell lays the foundation for his new program, it seems important to reward guys, no matter their status, for their performance on the field. This configuration would leave John Penisini, last year’s starting nose tackle, without a job. Don’t forget: Jashon Cornell reverts to the suspended list at the roster deadline, so the Lions essentially have an extra lineman under team control.
Edge (5)
In: Trey Flowers, Romeo Okwara, Julian Okwara, Austin Bryant, Charles Harris.
Prediction: I left Bryant off my spring roster prediction because of his injury history, but he’s popped in practice this summer. He is more likely to be a part of the Lions’ long-term future than Harris, but pass rushers are tough enough to find that it makes sense to keep both. Finding snaps for five outside linebackers won’t be easy, but Flowers plays inside in sub packages and Bryant should have a role on special teams.
Off-ball linebacker (5)
In: Jamie Collins, Alex Anzalone, Derrick Barnes, Jalen Reeves-Maybin, Jahlani Tavai.
Prediction: I considered keeping just four off-the-ball linebackers and going with a more traditional nine offensive linemen, but the fifth linebacker spot has more value on special teams. Shaun Dion Hamilton’s injury opened the door for one of Tavai or Anthony Pittman to make the roster, and while Pittman has played well at times, the Lions have seemed reluctant to give him snaps ahead of Tavai in base defensive packages. Despite what linebackers coach Mark DeLeone said about Tavai’s future last week, this is a decision that could come down to next week’s game against the Colts.
Cornerback (7)
In: Jeff Okudah, Amani Oruwariye, Mike Ford, Ifeatu Melifonwu, A.J. Parker, Bobby Price, Nickell Robey-Coleman
Prediction: Bobby Price had a great line last week, telling me he hoped to “dominate” on special teams. “Hopefully make this 53-man roster on special teams and then later on in the year, hopefully I can progress enough to play some corner or come in some third down packages, wherever they need me to play.” That’s essentially how the Lions have approached things the last two weeks, moving him from safety to corner to see where he can help in a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency situation. He probably joins Ford as a starting gunner, which is why he is part of my projected 53-man roster. The Lions need one of Robey-Coleman or Elder as insurance (and a potential early-season starter) at nickel, and Elder’s injury makes him the odd man out for now. I think Jerry Jacobs has done some good things this summer, too, but the numbers seem to indicate he’s headed for practice squad.
Safety (4)
In: Tracy Walker, Will Harris, Dean Marlowe, C.J. Moore.
Prediction: This seems pretty clear cut. Walker and Harris have taken the vast majority of first-team reps this summer, Marlowe is a do-everything backup and Moore is a core special teams player. The Lions should have room to keep one or both young safeties, Jalen Elliott and Alijah Holder, on practice squad, but at this point both appear to be on the outside looking in for roster spots.
Specialists (3)
In: P Jack Fox, K Randy Bullock, LS Scott Daly
Prediction: The Lions moved on from Don Muhlbach this week, leaving Daly to handle long snapping duties for now. The bigger question is who they will entrust kicking duties to, Bullock or Zane Gonzalez. Bullock has been up and down in camp, but he has a larger body of work for special teams coordinator Dave Fipp to evaluate. No matter who wins the kicking job, the Lions could be in for an adventure this fall.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.