Jared Goff has silenced many of his critics by playing the best football of his career over the past six weeks to lead the Detroit Lions into playoff contention, but Goff’s hot streak has not dimmed the prospects of the Lions taking a quarterback high in next spring’s NFL 2023 draft, according to one prominent analyst.
ESPN analyst Todd McShay released his first mock draft of the season Tuesday and had the Lions taking Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud with the No. 4 pick.
Alabama quarterback Bryce Young went No. 1 overall to the Houston Texans in McShay’s mock, followed by Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter to the Seattle Seahawks and Alabama pass rusher Will Anderson to the Chicago Bears.
“Everything fell perfectly for the Lions here, allowing them to draft their signal-caller of the future without moving up,” McShay wrote. “Jared Goff has played well under center of late, but he’s not the long-term answer. Stroud – who makes good decisions with the football, displays great touch and has a big arm – could learn behind Goff for a season before Detroit moves on and builds around a talented passer on a rookie deal. Detroit has a top-five offense right now (26.2 points per game), and a very good supporting cast is already in place.”
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The Lions seemed destined to draft a quarterback during their 1-6 start, when Goff piled up turnovers (nine) and struggled at times to move an offense dealing with injuries at the skill positions.
But the Lions have gotten healthy at wide receiver and running back in recent weeks, and Goff’s play has steadily improved.
He has thrown for 670 yards and five touchdowns in Lions victories over the Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings the past two weeks, and is completing 67.2% of his passes with 10 touchdowns and one interception as the Lions have gone 5-1 in their past six games.
“He’s done an unbelievable job just, man, getting us in the right play,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said Monday. “Decision-making, his ball accuracy, he made about three or four throws (against the Vikings) with pressure right in his face. We kind of got beat a couple of times inside quickly and he stood right in there and just made throws that were on the money and that’s – listen, that’s a credit to him.
“They’re blocking well up front, but the couple of times where it did kind of come through, man, he has really – he’s made a conscious effort to sit in here. He trusts those guys, and man the follow through to make the throws. So I have the utmost faith in the guy right now.”
Campbell’s faith in Goff, of course, is only one part of the draft equation as the Lions try and build a sustained championship contender.
Goff, 28, has two years left on his contract with cap hits of $30.65 million next season and $31.65 million in 2024. He’s due a $5 million roster bonus in March that the Lions seem almost certain to pick up.
If the Lions truly believe in Goff – and Goff continues to play at a high level – they will have to give him a contract extension at some point in the next 20 months that could make him one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL.
If the Lions still have doubts about his staying power – Goff was considered a system quarterback before his trade from the Los Angeles Rams in 2021 – this could be their last, best chance to take a quarterback high in the draft for the foreseeable future.
The Lions received what is currently No. 4 pick in the draft from the Rams as part of the Goff trade, and sit at No. 15 in the draft order with their own first-round pick. If they remain in playoff contention in future seasons, they will pick in the teens or lower, beyond where most elite quarterback prospects go.
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McShay has the Lions taking Penn State cornerback Joey Porter Jr. with their second first-round pick, projected by ESPN’s Football Power Index at No. 16.
“OK, time to address the Lions’ defense,” McShay wrote. “We’re all excited about the potential of C.J. Stroud in that offense, but if they keep giving up 6.2 yards per play (last in the NFL), it won’t matter too much. Jeff Okudah has been up and down after being the No. 3 overall pick in 2020, and Amani Oruwariye and Mike Hughes are both expected to be free agents in the spring. Porter – the son of former Steelers edge rusher Joey Porter – is my top cornerback, showcasing high-level recognition skills, and he’d give that defense more scheme flexibility. He didn’t have a pick this season, but he did have 11 pass breakups. Detroit walks away from Round 1 with playmakers on both sides of the ball.”
The Lions have significant needs on the defensive side of the ball, and while that unit has been much-improved of late, they could devote their top draft resources to defense if they are willing to ride with Goff at quarterback going forward.
Oruwariye is no longer in the playing rotation at cornerback, and starters Hughes, Will Harris, Alex Anzalone and DeShon Elliott are pending free agents. The Lions rank 31st in the NFL in total yards (403.2 per game) and scoring defense (26.7), though they have allowed 20.3 points per game during their current hot streak.
Carter and Anderson are considered the top non-quarterbacks in the draft, and the Lions could be tempted to take either if they are available with the Rams’ first-round pick. Carter would give the Lions the interior pass-rushing presence they currently lack; Anderson would be a bookend pass rusher to pair with this year’s No. 2 overall pick, Aidan Hutchinson.
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McShay has four quarterbacks going in the top 11 of his mock: Young, Stroud, Kentucky’s Will Levis (No. 6 to the Atlanta Falcons) and Florida’s Anthony Richardson (No. 11 to the Carolina Panthers).
If the Lions believe one of those players has Pro Bowl potential, they could go the draft-and-develop route like the San Francisco 49ers (with Trey Lance) and Kansas City Chiefs (with Patrick Mahomes) have in recent years despite having established quarterbacks on their roster.
Lance, the No. 3 pick of the 2021 draft, has barely played in his two seasons with the 49ers due to injuries, yet San Francisco remains one of the best teams in the NFC. Jimmy Garoppolo, a quarterback sometimes compared to Goff for his perceived ceiling, helped the 49ers reach the NFC championship game last season, and rookie Brock Purdy is starting in place of an injured Garoppolo now.
Mahomes, the No. 10 pick of the 2017 draft, sat one season behind Alex Smith, a former No. 1 overall pick on his second team like Goff, and has blossomed into the NFL’s best quarterback in the five years since.
Ultimately, that’s what the Lions’ decision should come down to: For as well as Goff has played the past six weeks, and for whatever cap benefits they might derive from having a rookie quarterback on their roster, if the Lions believe they have a chance to land a top-of-the-NFL signal caller with their first pick, they can’t pass that up.
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If they have more reservations about Stroud, Young, Levis or anyone else in this year’s quarterback class, and they like whatever defensive player is staring them in the face, then the right play is to pass on the QB.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.