Allen Park — It’s been a while. I took a needed, month-long break from social media, but that also disrupted my primary source for questions to write these Detroit Lions mailbags. But I’m back on Twitter, coinciding with the team’s late-season surge, so let’s see what’s on your mind:
▶ Question: It’s pretty obvious we are going to win the super bowl, right? — @ColtonKantola
▶ Answer: Glad to see everyone is keeping their optimism in check.
▶ Q: If Jared Goff signs an extension, what do you think the terms will be? — @EvanSchnaitman
▶ A: It’s a fascinating discussion, but one that looks to be impending with Goff’s recent play and the organization’s clear belief in the veteran quarterback.
As it currently stands, he has two years remaining on the four-year, $134 million pact he signed with the Los Angeles Rams in 2019. And while there’s no rush, those conversations could start as early as this offseason.
Statistically and stylistically, Goff presents limitations as a player. Because of that, there’s almost no threat of him entering the highest end of the salary scale at the position, where Aaron Rodgers reset the bar last season with an average annual salary north of $50 million.
Goff’s abilities are more in line with second-tier pocket passers like Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr, who have deals averaging $35 million and $40.5 million, respectively. This is the starting point of our conversation.
Factoring in age and cap inflation, Carr’s three-year, $121.5 million extension signed in April is a likely blueprint. What’s interesting about that deal is it only included $25 million in guarantees. I’d have to imagine the Lions and Goff would seek slightly more long-term stability. The question is whether increased guarantees would come with a lower annual value, bringing it closer to Cousins’ year-to-year situation in Minnesota.
Even at $40 million, we’re still talking about Goff eating up under 20% of the projected salary cap. So while a big deal like that can impact roster construction, it doesn’t limit a general manager’s ability to build a team around a high-cost QB like some might think.
▶ Q: Should Lions fans avoid doing the wave during crucial moments of the game so Dan Campbell can focus on approving the play calls from Ben Johnson? — @lbouwkamp8
▶ A: In case you missed it, this is in reference to Campbell’s Tuesday interview on the “Pat McAfee Show,” where the coach said his headset was malfunctioning during the fake punt and he was too distracted by the wave to process the call to throw the ball to Penei Sewell late in the fourth quarter.
Because of his delivery, it wasn’t easy to tell he was joking. That caused national and local reporters to run with the comments. Hell, ESPN sent out a push alert about the wave being a distraction. And if we’ve learned anything in the age of social media, it’s almost impossible to correct information after it enters the public sphere.
So be fully prepared, the next time Campbell makes a clock-management error, there will be commentators making jokes about the wave. That’s how this works. I’d also safely bet Campbell doesn’t care.
▶ Q: Seeing a lot of praise to Ben Johnson, obviously hot candidate for a head coaching job next year. Who might take his place? Anyone at home? — @arielcandal
▶ A: In terms of in-house candidates, a lot of people will jump to assistant head coach Duce Staley as a potential replacement, but one under-the-radar option I’d keep an eye on tight ends coach Tanner Engstrand.
Joining the Lions as a low-level offensive assistant in 2020, he replaced Johnson as the team’s tight end coach, and has also worked hand-in-hand with the OC as Detroit’s pass-game coordinator this season. Additionally, Engstrand has experience as an offensive coordinator, just not at the NFL level. He served in that capacity both at the University of San Diego and with the D.C. Defenders in the XFL.
It’s tougher to identify external candidates. For all we know, longtime Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael could become available.
▶ Q: Do we re-sign Anzalone? — @DirtyJerzFinest
▶ A: It seems like an increasingly realistic possibility. While Malcolm Rodriguez has exceeded all expectations as a rookie, and Derrick Barnes seems to be rounding a corner in his second season, there’s no one on the roster capable of adequately replacing what Anzalone brings as an every-down linebacker who handles the sideline communication and gets everyone lined up.
Beyond that, Anzalone is playing his best football right now. The schematic changes coming into the season helped clean up his missed tackle issues from last year. He simply looks more natural attacking than playing a read-and-react style.
Logging a team-high 852 defensive snaps, he’s already set a career-high with 100 tackles and four tackles for a loss. He’s also been solid in coverage, breaking up six throws, intercepting one and allowing a passer rating of 77.4 when targeted.
He’s only 28 years old and the draft doesn’t hold a lot of high-caliber options at the position. Extending the relationship just makes sense, which is a reversal in opinion from where I stood on the issue this time last year.
▶ Q: Is there any chance of extending contract with Jeff Okudah? — @DavidSu55379975
▶ A: Yeah, “a chance” is a good way to describe it. First and foremost, the team has a decision to make regarding Okudah’s fifth-year option this offseason, which is currently projected to be more than $11 million in 2024. But given the market has been awarding top free agents $16 million+ per season, it feels like a no-brainer.
It’s tough to get a read on Okudah’s projected value on the open market. Capable cornerbacks get paid, and he’s certainly been that this year, with the added value of toughness that shows up in run support.
In terms of coverage, he’s been good, not great. The ball skills have been slow to develop, with five pass breakups on 60 throws his direction. Still, that’s coming off a torn Achilles, so to say he’s exceeded expectations in his first full season back would be an understatement. There’s also every reason to believe he’s only going to get better as he gets further removed from the injury and gains experience.
▶ Q: Where do you stand on claims the Lions will have the cap room to be big spenders in free agency? — @dansmarmite
▶ A: If we count what the Lions might spend to retain some of their own guys, such as Goff or Okudah, that could easily make them big spenders.
In terms of bringing in outside free agents, general manager Brad Holmes has been conservative his first two years on the job, following through with his and the organization’s stated preference to build through the draft. That said, with the team showing signs of emerging from the cocoon of its rebuild, now would be a good time to pursue a quality veteran or two to plug holes on the roster.
Just don’t expect a wild shopping spree. That would be out of character for Holmes.
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▶ Q: Jared Goff is playing the best football of his career. If Brad Holmes decided to offer him in trade this offseason, what do you think they could get back in draft capital? — @pfnnewmedia
▶ A: While this strikes me as wildly unlikely, I’ll entertain the hypothetical.
We’ve seen quite a few quarterbacks traded in recent years. Last offseason, we witnessed deals for Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan. Goff’s value, if put on the block, would probably be between the first two and the latter two.
Watson and Wilson brought back huge returns, while Wentz essentially netted the Colts a pair of third-round selections. They were then able to pick up the aging Ryan from the Falcons for a third.
Goff and Wentz’s values were probably in the same ballpark a year ago, but Goff’s recent play likely puts him on a slightly higher level. It might not necessarily be enough to bring back a first-round choice, but two Day 2 picks? Sure.
But does that really make sense? Is it worth taking a step back in your rebuild, going from known to unknown at QB, in exchange for what might amount to Levi Onwuzurike and Josh Paschal? Probably not.
▶ Q: How big of an impact do you think the Lions’ recent streak and Dan Campbell’s persona will have on attracting potential free agents? — @GushingGecko
▶ A: If we’re comparing the allure of playing for a Dan Campbell-led team against the previous regime, obviously, it’s no contest. But coaching staff and culture are going to be a tie-breaker more than the primary factor in a free agent’s decision.
You hear it said by people in the league all the time, but this is a business. The goal for the majority of the league’s players is to make as much money as they can in the limited time they have to do it. And the ability to make more money is based on opportunity.
Salary, especially guaranteed money, and opportunity will always dominate contract negotiations. But Campbell’s reputation for shooting players straight and fostering a positive culture, at the very least, will have free agents open to listening to Detroit’s pitch.
▶ Q: Amani Oruwariye has been inactive for various games this year. I get benching, but why have an experienced DB inactive if other players in the secondary are subject to injury/concussion protocol any given game? — @TrebmalTtam
▶ A: Just so we’re clear, there’s a limit on players for an active game day roster. Sometimes, injuries make those decisions easy, but more often than not, there are a few healthy scratches. Those decisions are made based on where a player fits on the depth chart and how else they contribute.
What’s holding Oruwariye back is the team doesn’t have a role for him on special teams. They’ve tried a few things, but nothing has clicked. Other backup corners, such as Mike Hughes, and Chase Lucas, prior to be placed on injured reserve, showed the ability to contribute on multiple special teams units, making them better fits for the game day roster.
▶ Q: How do you think the Lions handle running back next season? — @azsharkey
▶ A: Add Jamaal Williams to the list of players I expect the Lions to attempt to re-sign. Sure, the league-leading 14 touchdowns have been nice, but it’s what he means in the locker room that reinforces my belief.
As for D’Andre Swift, he remains under contract for another year. And while his durability issues have been frustrating, everyone recognizes what he brings to the table when he’s close to full strength. That’s reason enough to ride out the contract.
The rest of the rotation could be brought back, as well, if the price is right. Still, I think there’s value in adding a rookie to the mix, particularly one who can replicate some of the stuff Swift does in the passing game. That provides you some insurance in 2023 and a potential replacement beyond next season.
▶ Q: Do you see the Lions taking a QB? I don’t see it. — @pedro43113966
▶ A: In the draft, I think it’s increasingly unlikely the Lions use a first-round pick on a quarterback. But I could see Holmes rolling the dice on a developmental backup as early in the second round. That includes the high-ceiling potential of Anthony Richardson (if he even makes it to the second round), an older but experienced option like Hendon Hooker, or this year’s Bailey Zappe, Houston’s Clayton Tune.
▶ Q: Who are the offensive and defensive MVPs at this point in the season? — @ManadnocFisher
▶ A: It would be easy to cast the MVP vote for Goff, but, for me, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s impact on the offense is impossible to ignore. The Lions struggled to move the ball with any consistency when he battling through a high-ankle sprain. Even with the injury slowing him down for a bit, he’s on pace for 110 catches and 1,200 yards.
Defensively, it’s not as easy. There hasn’t been a player who has played at a consistently high level like St. Brown. But if I was casting a vote today, I’d lean Aidan Hutchinson. After a sluggish start that was buoyed by three sacks in Week 2, he’s been a much more consistent performer in recent weeks, both against the run and rushing the passer. And those two interceptions don’t hurt.
▶ Q: How much dead cap money, if any, are the Lions still having to pay next year for Trey Flowers and Jamie Collins? — @misterowens99
▶ A: Both Flowers and Collins are off the books next year.
▶ Q: If you cover a Lions playoff game, does the media get filet for pre game meal? — @FrediThePizzamn
▶ A: Well, it won’t be a home game, at least not this year, so it will be whatever the road team is serving. Dallas offers the best press box meals, but that doesn’t appear to be in play, based on the standings. Honestly, anything is better than the hotel-style continental breakfast the Lions have been serving us at Ford Field this year.
▶ Q: What’s going on with Swift? — @RomanSadikoff
▶ A: He’s doing everything he can not to bring attention to himself, but he continues to be plagued by a high-ankle sprain he suffered in the season opener. It’s one of those injuries that if you don’t shut it down for 6-8 weeks, it’s not going to fully heal.
▶ Q: In Jameson Williams’ third game off of injury, how significant of an increase in snaps do you expect? — @apendygraft
▶ A: Probably not as sharp of an increase as we’ve seen with some other players returning from long-term injury. That’s not because Williams is uncapable of handling more, because I think he is. It has more to do with a healthy depth chart and St. Brown, DJ Chark and Josh Reynolds all having more established roles in an offense that’s producing at a high level.
Barring an injury to one of those three, Williams probably stays under 20 offensive snaps this week.
jdrogers@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @Justin_Rogers