The 2022 Detroit Lions season ended a week too early, but it was one of the team’s more memorable seasons in recent history.
Now it’s time to close the book on this season and look at what’s in store for Lions’ next chapter, when the 2023 NFL season arrives.
Since we’ll have plenty of time to dissect the particulars free agency and the NFL draft in the coming weeks and months, let’s kick this off with three reasons the Lions should have hope for next season, and three reasons they should be worried.
First, the concerns.
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Ben Johnson
If anyone’s still in denial about why the first-year offensive coordinator will be hired as a head coach, let me boil it down to one number: 21.9. That’s the league average in points scored this season. It’s the lowest since 2017 and the second-lowest since 2009. That means scoring is at a sky-high premium and Johnson knows the dark arts of entering the end zone and conjuring points.
The Lions’ only hope for Johnson not leaving is if he has reservations about an offer or if he struggles to impress an owner with his low-key personality or fails to present a good idea for the staff he plans to hire. But those are details that aren’t likely to keep a guy from getting a job when he meets one of the key qualifications.
The worry is the Lions could take a big step back next season without Johnson because if there’s one reason the Lions turned a corner this season, it was because of the offense and Johnson’s control of it. He resuscitated Jared Goff’s career and the Lions finished with the No. 4 overall offense and the No. 5 scoring offense at 26.6 points per game.
Johnson’s departure would be extremely difficult to overcome and, frankly, if he leaves and the Lions struggle, it’s going to be hard to blame them too much for stumbling.
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Run game
Late in the year, pending free-agent Jamaal Williams was asked if he wanted to return to the Lions. Of course, he said yes. All pending free agents says yes, because they don’t want to burn a bridge or seem like an ingrate or bad teammate. The real question is how much of a hometown discount is Williams willing to give the Lions?
My guess is not much. And he shouldn’t. He signed a $6-million, two-year deal with the Lions in 2021, after being a fourth-round pick by the Packers in 2017. He turns 28 in April and is coming off an NFL-leading 17 rushing touchdowns plus 1,066 yards. He was an unstoppable beast in the red zone and an extremely popular teammate in the locker room because he’s positive and selfless and has earned everything his way.
This is Williams’ last shot at his best contract, and on the open market he’s almost certain to get around $7 million per year for three or four years. I doubt the Lions are willing to match the money and years he’s looking for, or else they would have already signed him to an extension. That means their 11th-ranked run game could face some serious challenges when you factor in D’Andre Swift’s health, lackluster production and that he played just 42% of offensive snaps, the lowest of his career.
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Maybe this will all be solved by drafting Texas’ Bijan Johnson or UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet. But unless the Lions do that or re-sign Williams, there’s a big question mark in the backfield.
Expectations
The season finished on such a high note, it left the team and fans feeling like they had just won the Super Bowl. When’s the parade, ya’ll?
But now we venture into uncharted territory for Dan Campbell, Brad Holmes and the rest of the team. No one has expected much out of this regime the first two years, which produced 3-13-1 and 9-8 records.
Now they’re going to be a huge favorite to make the playoffs and will probably split pundits’ preseason vote with the Vikings as NFC North favorites.
This is the first time this team under this regime will play with such high expectations, which means every misstep will be heavily scrutinized. This would be a challenge for anyone, let alone a first-time GM and essentially a first-time head coach. It’s good that they’re both embracing that playoff standard right now, but dealing with the daily and weekly criticism during the season is a much different thing.
Look, everyone always expects an uninterrupted upward trajectory when there’s a hint of success (see: 2021 Tigers). But 31 NFL other teams are also trying to get better. They won’t surprise anyone the next year. After Jim Schwartz took the Lions to the playoffs in his third year, they went 4-12 the next year. After Jim Caldwell won 11 games and took the Lions to the playoffs his first year, they went 7-9 the next year.
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I’m not saying the Lions will take a step back next season, but they’re going to face a challenge they’ve never faced before, and that’s very much a real concern.
Reasons for hope: Jared Goff
It’s not all doom and gloom. One of key reasons for that is Jared Goff’s much-improved play this season. Yes, it came under Johnson’s guidance and his dynamic offense. But Goff proved he still had plenty left in the tank at 28.
Goff’s excellent season — 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions — not only staved off plans to find his successor in this year’s draft, but it also gives Holmes more options to bolster the team around him. A good supporting cast is always a quarterback’s best friend.
I worry a little that if Johnson leaves, Goff will have to learn a new system and work with his fifth offensive coordinator in three years. That’s a lot to ask. But Goff has shown so much mental resilience since his trade from the Rams that he’s earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to dealing with upheaval.
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The defense
Everyone point to them being dead last in overall defense. They also gave up an average of 25.1 points, tied for third most. I haven’t seen numbers that disappointing since I looked at my Mega Millions lottery ticket.
Two schools of thought here. The defense can’t get any worse, can it? Seriously, I’m asking. Can it?
Of course not. In fact it got much after the Lions were torched for 382 yards in a 31-27 loss to the Dolphins. Defensive pass game coordinator Aubrey Pleasant was fired the next day and things changed instantly.
In the first seven games with Pleasant, the Lions allowed an average of 32.1 points and went 1-6. In the next 10 games, they allowed an average of 20.2 points and went 8-2. To put that in perspective, if the Lions’ defense had averaged 20.2 points all season, they would have tied for seventh-best in the NFL.
They got great rookie contributions from Aidan Hutchinson, who looks like a star, James Houston came out of nowhere to record eight sacks and safety Kerby Joseph led the team with four interceptions. Tracy Walker’s return should be a huge boost to the secondary and if the Lions can sign or draft an elite cornerback or linebacker, this could be a dangerous defense.
Dan Campbell
It all starts with this guy. He’s the fourth Lions head coach I’ve covered and he feels different and better suited to the job than any of the three previous coaches.
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Campbell is a bit of a football coaching savant, which gets lost in his colorful Metallica-loving, kneecap-biting exterior. He understands the game thoroughly but also connects with his players and his staff because of his unvarnished genuine nature.
Not only did the Lions exceed most people’s expectations, and certainly mine, this season, but they’ve done so because Campbell has guided this team through a lot of turmoil with a steady hand. It’s incredibly disruptive to make coaching changes during a season, and not only has Campbell done so but has quickly reaped the benefits of his hard decisions.
It’s so much easier to wait until the season is over to make changes so that you don’t have to explain them in public, which is why most head coaches opt for that route. But Campbell’s willingness to face the music during the season tells you he has an urgency to win.
Contact Carlos Monarrez: cmonarrez@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @cmonarrez.